by David Allegranti
ROME (Public Policy) – We Cioranians are at the height of despair. Not only because of a natural, existential condition, but because of this seaside election campaign. To which one wonders: but isn’t it that we are right and we are simply hostage to a ruling class not up to the task? A ruling class that throws itself on memes, so to speak. In these hours there is Enrico Letta struggling with the polarizing cards that soon became a parody, but among the various things that Mickey Mouse reading teaches there is one of communication: parodies are made on the great classics. If the goal of an electoral campaign marked by exaggerated polarization is to immediately become a parody and not a classic, it seems to me that there is a political problem rather than a communication problem. A ruling class that throws itself on Tik-Tok in an attempt to recapture young people to bring them to the polls, taking into account that in this round, even at the age of 18, it will be possible to vote for the Senate.
Then there are those who do not know what they are talking about. Let’s take Licia Ronzulli, senator of Forza Italia, trait d’union between Lega and Berlusconiani, leader of Forza Italia in the Senate in Lombardy and Puglia, as well as a candidate in Piedmont. You say that regasifiers are needed “immediately” to “extract national natural gas and make us independent from supplies from abroad”. But the function of the regasifiers is not that, just search on Google if you have any doubts.
The doubt, or the certainty, arises precisely from Cioranism that we are in the presence of the worst election campaign in recent years. An electoral campaign that does not take into account the costs of party promises.
Let’s think of the Lega and Forza Italia flat tax, well analyzed by Massimo Baldini and Leonzio Rizzo on Lavoce.info: “The League’s proposal would produce 94 billion annually (excluding regional and municipal surcharges), with a decrease of 58 billion compared to the current Irpef”. One of the arguments in favor of the introduction of the flat tax with a much lower rate than those currently in force on the higher brackets is that it would bring out the tax base hitherto hidden by evasion or avoidance: “The annual report on tax evasion of the Ministry of Economy and Finance estimates a loss of income tax from tax evasion of approximately 38 billion. In the rosiest hypothesis in which everyone could be recovered, there would still be 20 billion missing. Even assuming a possible effect on economic growth, with a consequent increase in revenue, it is very unlikely that they will be recovered. This is equivalent to an increase in the income tax base of 25 percent. With the same tax base, to obtain the same income as today, the single rate should rise to 35 per cent, again taking into account the clause. If, on the other hand, we did not apply the clause, 24 percent would suffice, but many poor families would pay more than now. With the rate and deduction proposed by the League, the overall tax base growth that would guarantee revenue equal to today’s should be 45 percent, an impossible change within a few years ”.
The loss of revenue is similar for the flat tax proposed by Forza Italia. “Compared to the Lega scheme, in the Forza Italia scheme the higher rate compensates for the higher deduction. The single rate that would keep the revenue constant would be 37 per cent. Instead, with the rate and deduction proposed by Forza Italia, an increase in the tax base of 35 percent would be needed to obtain today’s revenue. The impact of this measure would also be even heavier on public finances today than it was four years ago. In 2018, in fact, the debt / GDP ratio was 132.2, while in 2021 it had reached 150.8 percent “. In short, who offers more? (