Politics: return to high risk for the government

Pension reform: the political apparatus disconnected from reality

Among the many issues at the start of 2023, pension reform is omnipresent in public debate. Bruno Cautre notice “the gap between the macroscopic vision of this reform through politics and what people will experience individually. ” The political scientist highlights that Elisabeth Borne is struggling to “give meaning to this reform project”even though the surveys carried out by the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof) reveal “the feeling that many French men and women have, namely that politics quite regularly exempts itself from the rules that it applies to others“. A misunderstanding reinforced by the debate which settles around “the question of fair remuneration for the work and the efforts that one has made in life“, believes the researcher, before adding that “working longer to end up with a fairly moderate retirement is not an extremely motivating social project.”

Tuesday January 3, 2023, at the microphone of Marc Fauvelle and Salhia Brakhlia, the Prime Minister, affirmed that the postponement of the legal retirement age to 65 was not a ” totem “. For Bruno Cautrethis statement which “accentuates the feeling of confusion. SIf it’s not a totem, why cling to it?“Especially since the political scientist is formal,”the executive will go all the way.

Pension negotiations: a parody of social dialogue?

Elisabeth Borne’s statement is an outstretched hand to the Republicans, it is for them “the hour of truth *” says Bruno Cautre : “if they vote for this reform project in the National Assembly, they will de facto switch to the presidential majority because it is an emblematic file, very important in public opinion and much discussed in the public space*. Conversely if they do not vote for it, they will appear in contradiction with the proposals they have made, including during the presidential campaign”.

In this context, the dialogue with the trade unions appears useless or even artificial. Bruno Cautre consider that “cAs always when the executive consults and receives the social partners or the leaders of political parties, it is a two-sided game. When the Prime Minister receives leaders of political parties, it is obviously with the aim of dialogue and trying to move towards shared solutions. But we must not be naive, “the executive wants to go through with the idea of ​​increasing the contribution period and pushing back the legal retirement age *” he insists.

For Stephane Alliesthe recent anger of bakers allows us to make the interesting observation that “politics is now slipping under the radar of unions and parties. We saw it on the SNCF strike. The protest is increasingly self-organized since the Yellow Vests movement“The reporter says that’s all the”traditional classic politico-union field of the left as well as of the right” who is endangered: “to force to hit the intermediary bodies constantly, for fifteen years now, we find ourselves in a society where everything can ignite since there is no longer any mediation or intermediation to do politics in the noble sense of term.

Return to politics under tension: a new challenge for the left?

The barometer produced each year by Cevipof highlights a major crisis of confidence according to Bruno Cautre : “the political parties are systematically placed at the bottom of the table, last, in the order of the confidence of the French, somewhere between 18 and 20% for a good year, and 12 and 15% the rest of the time.”

To the left of the political spectrum, “ithere is a big problem of representation” alert Stephane Allies. He deplores in particular that “at force to want to make the parties disappear”, some now appear more like disorganized clusters: “lhe rebellious France, for example, with its desire to be a permanently gaseous movement, only creates militant insecurity. There are no procedures, for example to know who to turn to when you are a victim – or allegedly a victim – of sexual violence or when it comes to appointing a new party leader or spokesperson.

If there is “there have always been internal dissensions in the Mélenchonian movements, what is really new is that this time, we are beginning to see criticism from long-time faithful emerge. This thus reveals tensions over the future of the party and the union of the left. develops the journalist. “Pensions don’t have to be the alpha and omega of the left right now.” valued Stephane Allies: “for the social left, the wage issue of re-indexing wages to inflation is now being raised, which drives all companies on strike. This does not mean that we should not mobilize on pensions, but the political left must manage to hold a global position, this must be its role with the unions.”

Politics: return to high risk for the government